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Statistical Laboratory

Professor David Spiegelhalter

Publications

Five rules for evidence communication
M Blastland, ALJ Freeman, S van der Linden, TM Marteau, D Spiegelhalter
– Nature
(2020)
587,
362
(doi: 10.1038/d41586-020-03189-1)
Making prognostic algorithms useful in shared decision-making: Patients and clinicians’ requirements for the Predict:Breast Cancer interface
GD Farmer, GM Pearson, WJ Skylark, ALJ Freeman, DJ Spiegelhalter
(2020)
(doi: 10.1101/2020.11.16.20232348)
Living risk prediction algorithm (QCOVID) for risk of hospital admission and mortality from coronavirus 19 in adults: national derivation and validation cohort study.
AK Clift, CAC Coupland, RH Keogh, K Diaz-Ordaz, E Williamson, EM Harrison, A Hayward, H Hemingway, P Horby, N Mehta, J Benger, K Khunti, D Spiegelhalter, A Sheikh, J Valabhji, RA Lyons, J Robson, MG Semple, F Kee, P Johnson, S Jebb, T Williams, J Hippisley-Cox
– The BMJ
(2020)
371,
m3731
(doi: 10.1136/bmj.m3731)
Communicating personalised risks from COVID-19: guidelines from an empirical study
ALJ Freeman, J Kerr, G Recchia, CR Schneider, ACE Lawrence, L Finikarides, G Luoni, S Dryhurst, DJ Spiegelhalter
(2020)
2020.10.05.20206961
(doi: 10.1101/2020.10.05.20206961)
Use of "normal" risk to improve understanding of dangers of covid-19.
D Spiegelhalter
– BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
(2020)
370,
m3259
(doi: 10.1136/bmj.m3259)
Shielding from covid-19 should be stratified by risk.
GD Smith, D Spiegelhalter
– The BMJ
(2020)
369,
m2063
(doi: 10.1136/bmj.m2063)
The effects of communicating uncertainty on public trust in facts and numbers.
AM van der Bles, S van der Linden, ALJ Freeman, DJ Spiegelhalter
– Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
(2020)
117,
7672
(doi: 10.1073/pnas.1913678117)
Should We Trust Algorithms?
D Spiegelhalter
– Harvard data science review
(2020)
(doi: 10.1162/99608f92.cb91a35a)
The effects of communicating uncertainty on public trust in facts and numbers
AM van der Bles, SVD Linden, A Freeman, D Spiegelhalter
(2020)
(doi: 10.31234/osf.io/vbtg3)
No more damned lies ...
D Spiegelhalter
– NEW SCIENTIST
(2020)
245,
48
(link to publication)
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Frontpage talks

Probability
Anirban Basak (ICTS, Tata Institute)
Statistics
Botond Szabo (Bocconi University)
17
Feb
14:00 - 15:00: Tba
Probability
Erwin Bolthausen (Universität Zürich)
18
Feb
16:30 - 18:00: Statistics Clinic Lent 2026 III
Cambridge Statistics Clinic
Speaker to be confirmed
Statistics
Chiara Amorino (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)

Research Group

Statistical Laboratory

Email

D.Spiegelhalter@statslab.cam.ac.uk

Personal homepage

https://www.dpmms.cam.ac.uk/~ds28/

    Study at Cambridge

    About the University

    Research at Cambridge