My good friend Joshua Loftus and I spent some 30 minutes to crack (at least we think we did!) a counterfactual inference made in a speech in the House of Commons in London in 1850 by Lord Palmerston, who was the Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs at the time.
This post is derived from my talk “Fisher, Statistics, and Randomization” in the Fisher in the 21st Century Conference organized by Fisher’s College, Gonville & Caius. In the first half of that talk, I tried to trace the origin of randomization.
Over this Easter weekend, I wrote the following commentary for the reprinting on Leo Breiman’s paper “Statistical Modeling: The Two Cultures” by Observational Studies. This is partly based on a talk I gave last year.