Selected Publications

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RESEARCH INTERESTSMy research has been largely motivated by the desire to
understand and
explore the connexions between logical and philosophical principles of
inference, mathematical structures, and data-analysis. Much of my
work is a critical examination of the logical I introduced the general axiomatic approach to Another continuing interest has been in abstract geometrical
descriptions of statistical models. Early work showed the
relevance and importance of the exponential and mixture connexions, and
of Fisher information, thus laying the foundations for Information Geometry. More
recently, extending these ideas, I introduced a
more general Decision Geometry. A major research effort over many years has been devoted to An important philosophical attitude running through my work
has been
a "positivist'' emphasis on observables, and on the falsifiability of
inferences.
This has guided my approach to the interpretation, assessment and
validation
of probabilistic statements and models. I introduced the Another fundamental research theme, extending de Finetti's
ideas of
exchangeability, has been in
I have been interested in the application of Probability and
Statistics
to a variety of subject areas, in particular to Medicine (especially
medical
diagnosis and decision-making), Crystallography, Reliability
(especially
Software Reliability) and, most recently, These legally inspired investigations highlighted
the many
logical subtleties and pitfalls that beset evidential reasoning more
generally.
To address these I established a multidisciplinary research
programme
on I am currently Director of the
Cambridge Statistics Initiative, which is charged with
developing novel statistical methodology of value in real applications. |

Research Interests

Full Publication List

Research reports

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SELECTED PUBLICATIONSMarginalization paradoxes in Bayesian and structural inference
(with
M. Stone and J. V. Zidek). With discussion. Likelihood and Bayesian inference from selectively reported
data (with
J. M. Dickey). Conditional independence in statistical theory. With
discussion. Some matrix-variate distribution theory: Notational
considerations and
a Bayesian application. The well-calibrated Bayesian. With discussion. Statistical theory: The prequential approach. With
discussion. Probability, symmetry and frequency. Calibration-based empirical probability. With
discussion. Symmetry models and hypotheses for structured data
layouts. With
discussion. Independence properties of directed Markov fields (with
S. L.
Lauritzen, B. N. Larsen and H. G. Leimer). Fisherian inference in likelihood and prequential frames of
reference.
With discussion. Applications of a general propagation algorithm for
probabilistic expert
systems. Prequential analysis, stochastic complexity and Bayesian
inference.
With discussion. On testing the validity of sequential probability forecasts
(with F.
Seillier-Moiseiwitsch). Hyper Markov laws in the statistical analysis of decomposable
graphical
models (with S. L. Lauritzen). Coherent combination of experts' opinions (with M. H. DeGroot
and J.
Mortera). Coherent analysis of forensic identification evidence (with J.
Mortera). Prequential analysis. Conditional independence. Prequential probability: Principles and properties (with V. G.
Vovk).
Coherent dispersion criteria for optimal experimental design
(with P.
Sebastiani). Causal inference without counterfactuals. With
discussion. Separoids: A mathematical framework for conditional
independence and
irrelevance. Compatible prior distributions (with S. L. Lauritzen). Bayes's theorem and weighing evidence by juries. In Influence diagrams for causal modelling and
inference. Probabilistic expert systems for forensic inference from
genetic markers
(with J. Mortera, V. L. Pascali and D. van Boxel). Game theory, maximum entropy, minimum discrepancy, and robust
Bayesian
decision theory (with P. D. Grunwald). Probability, causality and the empirical world: A Bayes-de
Finetti-Popper-Borel
synthesis. Counterfactuals, hypotheticals and potential responses: a
philosophical examination of statistical causality. In Causality and Probability in the Sciences,
edited by F. Russo and J. Williamson. London: College
Publications, Texts In Philosophy Series Vol. 5 (2007), 503–32. The geometry of proper scoring rules. Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 59 (2007), 77–93. doi:10.1007/s10463-006-0099-8 Object-oriented Bayesian networks for complex forensic DNA
profiling problems (with J. Mortera and P. Vicard). Forensic Science International 169 (2007), 195–205.
doi:10.1016/j.forsciint.2006.08.028 Object-oriented graphical representations of complex patterns
of evidence (with A. B. Hepler and V. Leucari). Law, Probability & Risk 6 (2007), 275–293.
doi:10.1093/lpr/mgm005 Statistics and the law. In Evidence, edited by Andrew Bell,
John Swenson-Wright and Karin Tybjerg. Cambridge University Press
(2008), 119–148. doi:10.2277/0521839610 |

Research Interests

Selected Publications

Full Publication List

Research reports (University
College London)

*Last updated: 12 December 2008*

Return to Philip Dawid's home page