Research Reports (1981-2008)
1981-1994 1994 1995
1996 1997 1998
1999 2000 2001
2002 2003 2004
2005 2006 2007
To request copies of any of these reports, where not available
online, please contact:
Department of Statistical Science,
University College London,
London WC1E 6BT, UK
Counterfactuals, hypotheticals and potential responses: A philosophical
examination of statistical causality.
The geometry of proper scoring rules.
Direct and indirect effects of sequential treatments (with Vanessa
and Sara Geneletti).
Probability and evidence (with Julia Mortera).
Identifying the consequences of dynamic treatment strategies (with
The geometry of decision theory (with Steffen Lauritzen).
Object-oriented Bayesian networks for complex forensic DNA profiling
(with Julia Mortera and Paola Vicard).
Statistics on trial.
Estimation of mutation rates from paternity cases using a Bayesian
Paola Vicard, Julia Mortera and Steffen Lauritzen).
Statistics and the law.
Probability and statistics in the law.
Paradox, simple inconsistency, or serious pathology? Comment on
as disintegration" by Chang & Pollard (with Mervyn Stone and
Which likelihood ratio? (Comment on "Why the effect of prior odds
accompany the likelihood ratio when reporting DNA evidence" by Ronald
and Marjan Sjerps).
A statistical treatment of biases affecting the estimation of mutation
rates (with Paola Vicard).
Probability, causality and the empirical world: A Bayes-de
An object-oriented Bayesian network for estimating mutation rates.
Probabilistic expert systems for DNA mixture profiling (with Julia
Mortera and Steffen
Game theory, maximum entropy, minimum discrepancy, and robust Bayesian
decision theory (with Peter Grunwald).
Influence diagrams for causal modelling and inference.
Non-fatherhood or mutation? A probabilistic approach to parental
in paternity testing (with Julia Mortera and Vincenzo Pascali).
Bayes's theorem and weighing evidence by juries.
Consistency in misspecified models (with Kostas Skouras).
Probabilistic expert systems for forensic inference from genetic markers
(with Julia Mortera, Vincenzo Pascali and Daniel van Boxel).
inference using influence diagrams: The problem of partial compliance.
Separoids: A general framework for conditional independence and
Comment on Stockmarr's "Likelihood ratios for evaluating DNA evidence,
when the suspect is found through a database search".
Compatible prior distributions (with Steffen Lauritzen).
Some variations on variation independence.
The trouble with Bayes factors.
Conditional products: An alternative approach to conditional
(with Milan Studeny).
Hierarchical models for DNA profiling using heterogeneous databases
(with John Pueschel).
Modelling issues in forensic inference.
Causal inference without counterfactuals.
Forensic identification with imperfect evidence (with Julia
Nonconjugate Bayesian regression on many variables (with Fang BiQi).
Critique of E.T.Jaynes's "Paradoxes of Probability Theory" (with
Stone and James Zidek).
Prequential probability: Principles and properties (with Vladimir
Using a graphical method to take account of dependencies when
complicated patterns of evidence (with Ian Evett).
Coherent criteria for optimal experimental design (with Paola
On efficient point prediction systems (with Kostas Skouras).
On efficient probability forecasting systems (with Kostas Skouras).
Comparison of full Bayes and Bayes-least squares criteria for normal
(with Fang BiQi).
Comments on "The roles of conditioning in inference" by N. Reid
Proper measures of discrepancy uncertainty and dependence with
to predictive experimental design.
Elementary Watson! Coherent analysis of forensic evidence
comparison of sequential learning methods for incomplete data (with
Robert Cowell and Paola Sebastiani).
Last updated: 26 May 2008