UCL logo


Research Reports (1981-2008)

A. P. Dawid

1981-1994  1994 1995 1996  1997  1998 1999  2000  2001 2002  2003  2004 2005  2006  2007  2008

To request copies of any of these reports, where not available online, please contact:
Marion Ware,
Department of Statistical Science,
University College London,
Gower Street,
London WC1E 6BT, UK
Tel.: +44 (0)20 7679 1872
Fax: +44 (0)20 7383 4703
email: marion@stats.ucl.ac.uk


  • 08:10 [Department of Mathematics, University of Bristol] Identifying optimal sequential decisions (with Vanessa Didelez).
  • 292 Probabilistic sensitivity analysis in health economics (with Gianluca Baio).
  • Top of page


  • EPH 2007 03 [Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Imperial College London] Defining and identifying the effect of treatment on the treated (with Sara Geneletti).
  • 279 Fundamentals of statistical causality.
  • 275 Object-oriented graphical representations of complex patterns of evidence (with Amanda Hepler and Valentina Leucari).
  • Top of page


  • 269 Counterfactuals, hypotheticals and potential responses: A philosophical examination of statistical causality.
  • 268 The geometry of proper scoring rules.
  • 265 Direct and indirect effects of sequential treatments (with Vanessa Didelez and Sara Geneletti).
  • 264 Probability and evidence (with Julia Mortera).
  • Top of page


  • 262 Identifying the consequences of dynamic treatment strategies (with Vanessa Didelez).
  • 261 The geometry of decision theory (with Steffen Lauritzen).
  • 256 Object-oriented Bayesian networks for complex forensic DNA profiling problems (with Julia Mortera and Paola Vicard).
  • Top of page


  • 250 Statistics on trial.
  • 249 Estimation of mutation rates from paternity cases using a Bayesian network (with Paola Vicard, Julia Mortera and Steffen Lauritzen).
  • 244 Statistics and the law.
  • 243 Probability and statistics in the law.
  • Top of page


  • 238 Paradox, simple inconsistency, or serious pathology? Comment on "Conditioning as disintegration" by Chang & Pollard (with Mervyn Stone and James Zidek).
  • 237 Which likelihood ratio? (Comment on "Why the effect of prior odds should accompany the likelihood ratio when reporting DNA evidence" by Ronald Meester and Marjan Sjerps).
  • 234 A statistical treatment of biases affecting the estimation of mutation rates (with Paola Vicard).
  • Top of page


  • 228 Probability, causality and the empirical world: A Bayes-de Finetti-Popper-Borel synthesis.
  • 226 An object-oriented Bayesian network for estimating mutation rates.
  • 225 Probabilistic expert systems for DNA mixture profiling (with Julia Mortera and Steffen Lauritzen).
  • 223 Game theory, maximum entropy, minimum discrepancy, and robust Bayesian decision theory (with Peter Grunwald).
  • Top of page


  • 221 Influence diagrams for causal modelling and inference.
  • 220 Non-fatherhood or mutation? A probabilistic approach to parental exclusion in paternity testing (with Julia Mortera and Vincenzo Pascali).
  • 219 Bayes's theorem and weighing evidence by juries.
  • Top of page


  • 218 Consistency in misspecified models (with Kostas Skouras).
  • 215 Probabilistic expert systems for forensic inference from genetic markers (with Julia Mortera, Vincenzo Pascali and Daniel van Boxel).
  • 213 Causal inference using influence diagrams: The problem of partial compliance.
  • 212 Separoids: A general framework for conditional independence and irrelevance.
  • 211 Comment on Stockmarr's "Likelihood ratios for evaluating DNA evidence, when the suspect is found through a database search".
  • 210 Compatible prior distributions (with Steffen Lauritzen).
  • 209 Some variations on variation independence.
  • Top of page


  • 202 The trouble with Bayes factors.
  • Top of page


  • 199 Conditional products: An alternative approach to conditional independence (with Milan Studeny).
  • 192 Hierarchical models for DNA profiling using heterogeneous databases (with John Pueschel).
  • Top of page


  • 189 Modelling issues in forensic inference.
  • 188 Causal inference without counterfactuals.
  • 181 Forensic identification with imperfect evidence (with Julia Mortera).
  • Top of page


  • 175 Nonconjugate Bayesian regression on many variables (with Fang BiQi).
  • 172 Critique of E.T.Jaynes's "Paradoxes of Probability Theory" (with Mervyn Stone and James Zidek).
  • 171 Prequential probability: Principles and properties (with Vladimir Vovk).
  • 170 Using a graphical method to take account of dependencies when evaluating complicated patterns of evidence (with Ian Evett).
  • 167 Coherent criteria for optimal experimental design (with Paola Sebastiani).
  • 160 On efficient point prediction systems (with Kostas Skouras).
  • 159 On efficient probability forecasting systems (with Kostas Skouras).
  • 157 Conditional Independence.
  • Top of page


  • 151 Comparison of full Bayes and Bayes-least squares criteria for normal discrimination (with Fang BiQi).
  • 144 Comments on "The roles of conditioning in inference" by N. Reid (with Costas Goutis).
  • 141 Prequential analysis.
  • Top of page


  • 139 Proper measures of discrepancy uncertainty and dependence with applications to predictive experimental design.
  • 136 Elementary Watson!  Coherent analysis of forensic evidence (with Julia Mortera).
  • 135A comparison of sequential learning methods for incomplete data (with Robert Cowell and Paola Sebastiani).
  • 1981-1994

    Top of page

    Return to Philip Dawid's home page

    Last updated: 26 May 2008