University of Cambridge > Mathematics > Statistical Laboratory > People

David Spiegelhalter's Personal Home Page

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Contact Details Statistical Laboratory Centre for Mathematical Sciences Wilberforce Road Cambridge CB3 0WB, Email: D.Spiegelhalter[at]statslab.cam.ac.uk Telephone: +44 1223 337945 Fax: +44 1223 337956

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Research

Since October 2007 I have been Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk.

Teaching

I currently teach Applied Bayesian Statistics in the Lent Term to Part III students. Material can be accessed from Camtools.

Understanding Uncertainty and Risk

I work with a small team, all part time, comprising Mike Pearson (web and animation), and Owen Smith (web). Our work focuses on the appropriate use of quantitative methods in dealing with risk and uncertainty in the lives of individuals and society. We falls into the broad category of 'public understanding of science', while our work with schools can be considered as 'maths outreach'. However we try to take a view of the subject that extends beyond the application of probability and statistics, acknowledging that there are deeper uncertainties that cannot be easily put into a formal framework, and that social and psychological issues necessarily play a vital role. Our work has been covered in the Times. We are involved in a number of different areas:

• Website: Understanding Uncertainty

  This is an educational resource featuring the use of probability and statistics in everyday life, and makes extensive use of animations to help 'tell the story' of the data. Googling 'Uncertainty' should find it.

• Media

  • Newspaper and magazine articles: My articles are listed here, and can also be found using Journalisted.com although the Times ones are now behind the pay-wall (sob).
    I am a guest columnist in the Times on the risks of ecstasy and horse-riding, swine flu, Paul the Octopus (all behind a paywall) and other topics, the Guardian on uncertainty in forecasting, and New Scientist on over-reaction to risk.
    Popular articles on uncertainty include risks of risk communication, 'Choose the yum and risk the yuk?' (which has had over 300,000 hits) and the predictable pattern of murders in London.
  • Radio, including Radio 4 programmes Today , numerous appearances on More or Less concerning, for example, alcohol risks and football , You and Yours, The Investigation, Analysis, PM and others.
  • Television This includes appearances on the BBC4 documentary The Joy of Stats fronted by the wonderful Hans Rosling, the BBC2 Horizon programme To Infinity and Beyond which featured the infinite monkey and typewriter problem, and discussing homeopathy on Professor Regan's Medicine Cabinet . Other TV productions are in process.
  • Science Media Centre I work with the Science Media Centre in providing frequent comments for journalists writing stories about risks.
  • Twitter @undunc
  • Youtube: my Professor Risk video has been watched over 70,000 times.

• Schools work:

  • Talks to young people, for example through the Millennium Mathematics Project , University of Cambridge Widening Participation, Royal Institution Masterclasses, Maths Inspiration , Cambridge Science Week, as well as talks in individual schools and colleges
  • A column in Plus Magazine: see for example articles on the lottery, football premier league, surprises, how long you might live, and the probability that Obama would win the 2008 Presidential election.
  • Development of the Risk Roadshow for schools in collaboration with the Millennium Mathematics Project.

• Outreach collaborations:

  • On the Board of the Royal Statistical Society Getstats campaign for improvement of statistical literacy: this includes developing a syllabus and material for journalism training on statistics and risk
  • Collaboration with the Met Office on an online randomised experiment of alternative ways of presenting probabilistic information on 5-day weather forecasts - over 8000 unique participants.
  • JBS-3: I am part of the Joint British Societies team developing revised guidelines for cardiovascular care. A lifetime risk model and interactive program based on our animations are being developed with the intention that this will be available online and in GPs surgeries
  • Worked with BBC Lab UK on a mass psychology experiment on risk perception and attitude: the Big Risk Test. Over 100,000 participants so far.

• Academic collaborations:

  • I am one of the investigators in the University of Cambridge Behaviour and Health Research Unit (BHRU) which has a 5-year 3M Department of Health grant to "contribute evidence to national and international efforts to achieve sustained behaviour change that improves health outcomes and reduces health inequalities".
  • Jointly led a Mellon-Sawyer seminar throughout 2009-10 on Modelling Futures: Understanding Risk and Uncertainty. This ran through CRASSH and involved participants from History and Philosophy of Science, Geography, Judge Institute, Statistical Laboratory and many other Cambridge institutions from both the sciences and humanities, and was intended to shed light on the advantages and the limitations of formal models for prediction in the light of pervasive societal and scientific uncertainty.

• Public service:

  • Member of the Expert Advisory Group on breast implants that produced Poly Implant Proth?se (PIP) breast implants: final report of the Expert Group .
  • Member of Royal Society working group that produced Climate change: A Summary of the Science .
  • Member of the South Central Strategic Health Authority's Independent Review of Paediatric Cardiac Surgery and Clinical Governance at the Oxford Radcliffe Infirmary.
  • Member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) for Volcanic Ash
  • Royal Statistical Society Schools (Guy) Lecturer, 2009-2010.
  • Chair of the Trial Screening Committee of the Flexible Sigmoidoscopy trial.
  
  

  Talks

  Here is a list of all my presentations since October 2007, including appearances at Cambridge Science Festival, Cheltenham Science Festival, British Science Festival and Hay Literary Festival. Audiences total around 35,000 (up to July 2012), including around 13000 school students.
  Recent major presentations include:
  • June 2012: Hay Literary Festival
  • May 2012: DEFRA Annual Dalton Lecture
  • April 2012: Royal Institution Discourse
  • March 2012: BAMC Annual public lecture
  • Jan 2012: Annual Lecture of Medicines and Health Regulatory Agency (MHRA)
  • Dec 2011: Annual Lecture of Institute of Risk Management
  • Nov 2011: Annual Simonyi Public Understanding of Science lecture, Oxford
  • Sep 2011: Plenary Lecture: EPICOH Occupational Health International Conference, Oxford
  • Aug 2011: Plenary Lecture: International Statistical Institute conference, Dublin
  • Jun 2011: Cheltenham Science Festival
  • Mar 2011: Plenary Lecture: ACME Annual Conference, London
  • Jun 2010: Cheltenham Science Festival
  • Mar 2010: Royal Society meeting on Scientific Uncertainty
  • Jan 2010: The Darwin Lectures, Cambridge the opening Lecture in this Series

  Recent Publications

  Here is a list of publications since 2007: an earlier list is available here in an old CV.

  2012

  • Rakow, T., Wright, R. J., Bull, C., & Spiegelhalter, D. J. (2012, June 29). Simple and multistate survival curves: can people learn to use them?. Med Decis Making. DOI: 10.1177/0272989X12451057
  • Sutherland WJ, Bellingan L, Bellingham JR, Blackstock JJ, Bloomfield RM, Bravo M, Cadman VM, Cleevely DD, Clements A, Cohen AS, Cope DR, Daemmrich AA, Devecchi C, Anadon LD, Denegri S, Doubleday R, Dusic NR, Evans RJ, Feng WY, Godfray HC, Harris P, Hartley SE, Hester AJ, Holmes J, Hughes A, Hulme M, Irwin C, Jennings RC, Kass GS, Littlejohns P, Marteau TM, McKee G, Millstone EP, Nuttall WJ, Owens S, Parker MM, Pearson S, Petts J, Ploszek R, Pullin AS, Reid G, Richards KS, Robinson JG, Shaxson L, Sierra L, Smith BG, Spiegelhalter DJ, Stilgoe J, Stirling A, Tyler CP, Winickoff DE, Zimmern RL. (2012). A collaboratively-derived science-policy research agenda. PLoS One, 7(3), e31824. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0031824
  • Turner RM, Lloyd-Jones M, Anumba DO, Smith GC, Spiegelhalter DJ, Squires H, Stevens JW, Sweeting MJ, Urbaniak SJ, Webster R, Thompson SG. (2012). Routine antenatal anti-D prophylaxis in women who are Rh(D) negative: meta-analyses adjusted for differences in study design and quality. PLoS One, 7(2), e30711. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0030711
  • HE Jones and DJ Spiegelhalter. Improved probabilistic prediction of healthcare performance indicators using bidirectional smoothing models, J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. A 175: 729-747, 2012
  • DJ Spiegelhalter, C Sherlaw-Johnson, M Bardsley, I Blunt, C Wood, C and O Grigg. Statistical methods for healthcare regulation: rating, screening and surveillance (with discussion). J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. A 175: 1-25, 2012 DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2011.01010.x

  2011

  • HE Jones and DJ Spiegelhalter. The identification of `unusual' health-care providers from a hierarchical model American Statistician, 65 : 154-163, 2011. DOI: 10.1198/tast.2011.10190
  • AT Booth, R. Choudhary, DJ Spiegelhalter. Handling uncertainty in housing stock models Building and Environment, 48 : 35-47, 2011. DOI: 10.1016/j.buildenv.2011.08.016
  • DJ Spiegelhalter, H Riesch. Don't know, can't know: embracing deeper uncertainties when analysing risks. Phil Trans Roy Soc A , 369 4730-4750, 2011. DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2011.0163 doi: 10.1098/rsta.2011.0163
  • DJ Spiegelhalter, I Short, M Pearson. Visualizing uncertainty about the future. Science , 333: 1393-1400, 2011 DOI: 10.1126/science.1191181
  • DJ Spiegelhalter. Fear and numbers in Fukushima. Significance , 8 : 100-103, 2011 DOI: 10.1111/j.1740-9713.2011.00501.x
  • T Miron-Shatz, I Muhlhauser, B Bower, M Diefenbach, B Goldacre, RSW Smith, D Spiegelhalter and O Wegwarth Barriers to health information and building solutions. Pages 191-214 In Better Doctors, Better Patients, Better Decisions: Envisioning Health Care 2020 Eds. G Gigerenzer and JA Muir Gray MIT Press, Cambridge MA 2011
  • D Spiegelhalter. Quantifying uncertainty Pages 17-33 In RIsk (Darwin College Lectures) Eds. L Skinns, M Scott, T Cox CUP, Cambridge 2011
  • S Bujkiewicz, HE Jones, MC Lai, NJ Cooper, N Hawkins, H Squires, KR Abrams, DJ Spiegelhalter, AJ Sutton. Development of a transparent interactive decision interrogator to facilitate the decision-making process in health care. Value in Health , 14 : 768-76, 2011 DOI:10.1016/j.jval.2010.12.002
  • Rodgers M, Epstein D, Bojke L, Yang H, Craig D, Fonseca T, Myers L, Bruce I, Chalmers R, Bujkiewicz S, Lai M, Cooper N, Abrams K, Spiegelhalter D, Sutton A, Sculpher M, Woolacott N (2011, February). Etanercept, infliximab and adalimumab for the treatment of psoriatic arthritis: a systematic review and economic evaluation. Health Technology Assessment , 15(10) , i-329. 2011 DOI:10.3310/hta15100
  • NJ Cooper, J Peters, MC Lai, P Juni, S Wandel, S Palmer, M Paulden, S Conti, N Welton, KR Abrams, S Bujkiewicz, DJ Spiegelhalter, AJ Sutton. How Valuable are Multiple Treatment Comparison Methods in Evidence-Based Health-Care Evaluation? Value in Health , 14 : 371-380, 2011 DOI: 10.1016/j.jval.2010.09.001
  • H Riesch DJ Spiegelhalter. 'Careless pork costs lives': risk stories from science to press release to media. Health, Risk & Society , 13: 47-64, 2011 DOI: 10.1080/13698575.2010.540645
  • G-C Manzi, DJ Spiegelhalter, RM Turner, J Flowers, SG Thompson. Modelling bias in combining small-area prevalence estimates from multiple surveys' J. Royal Statistical Soc. Series A - Statistics in Soc., 174:31-50, 2011. DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2010.00648.x

  2010

  • B Neuenschwander, G Capkun-Niggli, M Branson and DJ Spiegelhalter. Summarizing historical information on controls in clinical trials. Clinical Trials, 7:5-18, 2010 DOI: 10.1177/1740774509356002

  2009

  • O Grigg and DJ Spiegelhalter. Clinical surveillance and patient safety. In Performance Measurement for Health System Improvement: Experiences, Challenges and Prospects. Eds PC Smith, E Mossialos, I Papanicolas and S Leatherman. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. pp 286-310, 2009
  • D J Spiegelhalter and Y-L Ng. One match to go! Significance, 6:151-153, 2009. DOI: 10.1111/j.1740-9713.2009.00387.x
  • B Neuenschwander, M Branson and D J Spiegelhalter. A note on the power prior. Statistics in Medicine, 28: 3562-3566, 2009.DOI: 10.1002/sim.3722
  • D Lunn, D Spiegelhalter, A Thomas and N Best . The BUGS project: Evolution, critique and future directions. Statistics in Medicine, 28: 3049 - 3067, 2009.DOI: 10.1002/sim.3680
  • D J Spiegelhalter and K Rice. Bayesian Statistics. Scholarpedia, 4(8): 5230, 2009.http://www.scholarpedia.org/article/Bayesian_statistics
  • H E Jones and D J Spiegelhalter. Accounting for regression-to-the-mean in tests for recent changes in institutional performance: analysis and power. Statistics in Medicine, 28: 1645-1667, 2009.DOI: 10.1002/sim.3583
  • D J Spiegelhalter and A Barnett. London murders: a predictable pattern?. Significance, 6:5-8, 2009.DOI: 10.1111/j.1740-9713.2009.00334.x
  • D Lunn, N G Best, D J Spiegelhalter, G Graham, and B Neuenschwander. Combining MCMC and `sequential' PK-PD modelling. Journal Pharmaceutical Statistics, 36: 19-38, 2009.DOI: 10.1007/s10928-008-9109-1.
  • M Bardsley, C Sherlaw-Johnson, I Blunt, and D J Spiegelhalter. Using routine intelligence to target inspection of healthcare providers in England Quality and Safety in Health Care, 18: 189-194, 2009.DOI: 10.1136/qshc.2007.024802.
  • J P T Higgins, S G Thompson, and D J Spiegelhalter. A re-evaluation of random-effects meta-analysis . J. Royal Statistical Soc. Series A - Statistics in Soc., 172:137-159, 2009.DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2008.00552.x
  • O A Grigg, D J Spiegelhalter, and H E Jones. Local and marginal control charts applied to MRSA bacteraemia reports in UK acute NHS Trusts. J. Royal Statistical Soc. Series A - Statistics in Soc., , 172:49:66, 2009.DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2008.00553.x
  • R M Turner, D J Spiegelhalter, G C S Smith, and S G Thompson. Bias modelling in evidence synthesis. J. Royal Statistical Soc. Series A - Statistics in Soc., 172:23-47, 2009.DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2008.00547.x
  • DJ Spiegelhalter and H Goldstein. Comment: Citation statistics. Statistical Science , 24(1): 21-24, 2009

  2008

  • O Grigg and D J Spiegelhalter. An empirical approximation to the null unbounded steady-state distribution of the CUSUM statistic. Technometrics, 50: 501-511, 2008.DOI: 10.1198/004017008000000299
  • A S Walker, D J Spiegelhalter, D W Crook, D Wyllie, J Morris, and T E A Peto. Fairness of financial penalties to improve control of Clostridium difficile. British Medical Journal, 337:1385-1387, 2008.
  • J Schulman, D J Spiegelhalter, and G Parry. How to interpret your dot: Decoding the message of clinical performance indicators. J. Perinatology, 28:588-596, 2008.DOI: 10.1038/jp.2008.67
  • A. M. Presanis, D. De Angelis, D. J. Spiegelhalter, S. Seaman, A. Goubar, and A. E. Ades. Conflicting evidence in a Bayesian synthesis of surveillance data to estimate human immunodefficiency virus prevalence. J. Royal Statistical Soc. Series A-statistics In Soc., 171:915-937, 2008. DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2008.00543.x
  • J Suckling, D Ohlssen, C Andrew, J Johnson, SC Williams, M Graves, CH Chen, D Spiegelhalter, and E Bullmore. Components of variance in a multicentre functional MRI study and implications for calculation of statistical power. Human Brain Mapping, 29:1111-1122, 2008. DOI: 10.1002/hbm.20451
  • HE Jones, DI Ohlssen, and DJ Spiegelhalter. Use of the false discovery rate when comparing multiple health care providers. J Clin Epidemiol, 61:232-240, 2008 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2007.04.017.
  • AL Kinmonth, NJ Wareham, W Hardeman, S Sutton, AT Prevost, T Fanshawe, KM Williams, U Ekelund, D Spiegelhalter, and SJ Griffin. Efficacy of a theory-based behavioural intervention to increase physical activity in an at-risk group in primary care (ProActive UK): a randomised trial. Lancet, 371:41-48, 2008.DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(08)60070-7
  • D. J. Spiegelhalter. Understanding uncertainty. Annals Family Medicine, 6(3):196-197, 2008.DOI: 10.1370/afm.848
  • D J Spiegelhalter and H Riesch. Risk, middle-class drinking, and bacon sandwiches. Significance, 5:30-33, 2008.DOI: 10.1111/j.1740-9713.2008.00277.x

  2007

  • O J Arthurs, T Donovan, D J Spiegelhalter, J D Pickard, and S J Boniface. Intracortically distributed neurovascular coupling relationships within and between human somatosensory cortices. Cerebral Cortex, 17:661-668, 2007.DOI: 10.1093/cercor/bhk014
  • A Gorst-Rasmussen, D J Spiegelhalter, and C Bull. Monitoring the introduction of a surgical intervention with long-term consequences. Statistics in Medicine, 26:512-531, 2007.DOI: 10.1002/sim.2548
  • O Grigg and D J Spiegelhalter. A simple risk-adjusted exponentially weighted moving average. Journal of American Statistical Association, 102:140-152, 2007.DOI: 10.1198/016214506000001121
  • D Ohlssen, L D Sharples, and D J Spiegelhalter. Flexible random- effects models using Bayesian semi-parametric models: applications in institutional comparisons. Statistics in Medicine, 26:2088-2112, 2007.DOI: 10.1002/sim.2666
  • D Ohlssen, L D Sharples, and D J Spiegelhalter. A hierarchical modelling framework for identifying unusual performance in health care providers. J Roy Statist Soc A, 170:865-890, 2007.DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2007.00487.x
  • E C Marshall and D J Spiegelhalter. Simulation-based tests for divergent behaviour in hierarchical models. Bayesian Analysis, 2:409-444, 2007.DOI: 10.1214/07-BA218
  • C Weir, A Grieve, and D J Spiegelhalter. Likelihood-based posterior updating for optimal dose allocation in a normal dynamic linear model. Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics, 17:1033-1050, 2007.DOI: 10.1080/10543400701643947
  • T Ring and D J Spiegelhalter. Risk of intracranial aneurysm bleeding in autosomal-dominant polycystic kidney disease. Kidney International, 72:1400-2, 2007.DOI: 10.1038/sj.ki.5002488
  • AT Prevost, D Mason, S Griffin, AL Kinmonth, S Sutton, and D Spiegelhalter. Allowing for correlations between correlations in random-effects meta-analysis of correlation matrices. Psychological Methods, 12:434-450, 2007.DOI: 10.1037/1082-989X.12.4.434
  
  

  Immodest stuff

  • See Google Scholar for the top citation-earners. According to Web of Science, in July 2012 my h-index was 59 (although this is a stupid measure of performance). I am among the many ISI Highly Cited Researchers.
  • 2011: Science Communication Award for Established Researchers from the Society of Biology
  • 2010: Weldon Medal from the University of Oxford
  • 2010: Honorary Doctorate of Science from the University of Plymouth for services to statistical education
  • 2009-10: President of the Mathematics Section of the British Science Association.
  • 2009 Pinkerton Medal from the Association of Anaesthetists of Great Britain and Ireland
  • 2009: Elected Fellow of the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications
  • 2009: I gave the 2009 Distinguished Lecture Series in Statistical Sciences at the Fields Institute in Toronto
  • 2008: Spiegelhalter et al (2002) has the 3rd highest citations in the Mathematical Sciences in the last 10 years:
  • 2008: Bernoulli Lecture at the 7th World Congress of Probability and Statistics (Institute of Mathematical Statistics) in Singapore
  • 2006: Career Achievement Award, Society for Medical Decision Making
  • 2006: OBE (Officer of the Order of the British Empire)
  • 2006: Honorary Professor of Biostatistics, University of Cambridge
  • 2005: Elected Fellow of the Royal Society
  
  

  External work

  I have acted as a paid statistical consultant to a variety of organisations, including the Healthcare Commission, World Anti-Doping Agency, Novartis, and GlaxoSmithKline.
  

  Really Personal Page

  This includes my stained glass work.
  
  

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  University of Cambridge / Mathematics / Statistical Laboratory / People / D.J. Spiegelhalter

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