David Spiegelhalter's Personal Home Page

Contact Details
Statistical Laboratory
Centre for Mathematical Sciences
Wilberforce Road
Cambridge CB3 0WB,
Email: D.Spiegelhalter[at]statslab.cam.ac.uk
Telephone: +44 1223 337945
Fax: +44 1223 337956

Research

Since October 2007 I have been Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk (for 60% of my time), while continuing as a Senior Scientist in the MRC Biostatistics Unit (40% of my time).

Teaching:

I teach Applied Bayesian Statistics in the Lent Term to Part III and MPhil in Statistical Science students. Material for this course can be obtained from this website [local access only].

Understanding Uncertainty and Risk

I work with a small team, all part time, comprising Arciris Garay-Arevalo (administration and research), Hauke Riesch (social scientist), Mike Pearson and Ian Short (web and animation), and Owen Smith (web). Our work focuses on the appropriate use of quantitative methods in dealing with risk and uncertainty in the lives of individuals and society. Our work falls into the broad category of 'public understanding of science', while our work with schools can be considered as 'maths outreach'. However we try to take a view of the subject that extends beyond the application of probability and statistics, acknowledging that there are deeper uncertainties that cannot be easily put into a formal framework, and that social and psychological issues necessarily play a vital role. We are involved in a number of different areas:

Our website, titled Understanding Uncertainty, launched in May 2008. This is developing into an educational resource featuring the use of probability and statistics in everyday life, and makes extensive use of animations to help 'tell the story' of the data.
Jointly leading a Mellon-Sawyer seminar throughout 2009-10 on Modelling Futures: Understanding Risk and Uncertainty. This is being run through CRASSH and involves participants from History and Philosophy of Science, Geography, Judge Institute, Statistical Laboratory and many other Cambridge institutions from both the sciences and humanities, and is intended to shed light on the advantages and the limitations of formal models for prediction in the light of pervasive societal and scientific uncertainty.
Talks to young people, for example through the Millennium Mathematics Project , University of Cambridge Widening Participation, Royal Institution Masterclasses, Maths Inspiration , Science Week, as well as talks in individual schools and colleges
A column in Plus Magazine: see for example articles on the lottery, football premier league, surprises, how long you might live, and the probability that Obama would win the 2008 Presidential election.
Development of the Risk Roadshow for schools in collaboration with the Millennium Mathematics Project.
Media appearances, including Radio 4 programmes Today , More or Less on alcohol risks and football , You and Yours, The Investigation, and Analysis.
Newspaper and magazine articles: we've had some good coverage in the Times, and I have been a guest columnist in the Times on the risks of ecstasy and horse-riding and swine flu, the Guardian on uncertainty in forecasting, and New Scientist on over-reaction to risk.
Popular articles on uncertainty, such as on the risks of risk communication, 'Choose the yum and risk the yuk?' (which has had over 300,000 hits) and the predictable pattern of murders in London.
Director of Straight Statistics which is intended to "improve the understanding and use of statistics by government, politicians, companies, advertisers and the mass media". A recent article questioned the finding of 'statistical significance' in the court case against Corby Council. .

Talks

Here is a list of all my presentations since October 2007.

Recent Publications

Here is a list of publications since 2007: an earlier list is on my MRC site

2009

B Neuenschwander, M Branson and D J Spiegelhalter. A note on the power prior. Statistics in Medicine, 28: XXX-XXX, 2009.DOI: 10.1002/sim.3722
D Lunn, D Spiegelhalter, A Thomas and N Best . The BUGS project: Evolution, critique and future directions. Statistics in Medicine, 28: 3049 - 3067, 2009.DOI: 10.1002/sim.3680
D J Spiegelhalter and K Rice. Bayesian Statistics. Scholarpedia, 4(8): 5230, 2009.http://www.scholarpedia.org/article/Bayesian_statistics
H E Jones and D J Spiegelhalter. Accounting for regression-to-the-mean in tests for recent changes in institutional performance: analysis and power. Statistics in Medicine, 28: 1645-1667, 2009.DOI: 10.1002/sim.3583
D J Spiegelhalter and A Barnett. London murders: a predictable pattern?. Significance, 6:5-8, 2008.DOI: 10.1111/j.1740-9713.2009.00334.x
D Lunn, N G Best, D J Spiegelhalter, G Graham, and B Neuenschwander. Combining MCMC and `sequential' PK-PD modelling. Journal Pharmaceutical Statistics, 36: 19-38, 2009.DOI: 10.1007/s10928-008-9109-1.
M Bardsley, C Sherlaw-Johnson, I Blunt, and D J Spiegelhalter. Using routine intelligence to target inspection of healthcare providers in England Quality and Safety in Health Care, 18: 189-194, 2009.DOI: 10.1136/qshc.2007.024802.
J P T Higgins, S G Thompson, and D J Spiegelhalter. A re-evaluation of random-effects meta-analysis . J. Royal Statistical Soc. Series A - Statistics in Soc., 172:137-159, 2009.DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2008.00552.x
O A Grigg, D J Spiegelhalter, and H E Jones. Local and marginal control charts applied to MRSA bacteraemia reports in UK acute NHS Trusts. J. Royal Statistical Soc. Series A - Statistics in Soc., , 172:49:66, 2009.DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2008.00553.x
R M Turner, D J Spiegelhalter, G C S Smith, and S G Thompson. Bias modelling in evidence synthesis. J. Royal Statistical Soc. Series A - Statistics in Soc., 172:23-47, 2009.DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2008.00547.x

2008

O Grigg and D J Spiegelhalter. An empirical approximation to the null unbounded steady-state distribution of the CUSUM statistic. Technometrics, 50: 501-511, 2008.DOI: 10.1198/004017008000000299
A S Walker, D J Spiegelhalter, D W Crook, D Wyllie, J Morris, and T E A Peto. Fairness of financial penalties to improve control of Clostridium difficile. British Medical Journal, 337:1385-1387, 2008.
J Schulman, D J Spiegelhalter, and G Parry. How to interpret your dot: Decoding the message of clinical performance indicators. J. Perinatology, 28:588-596, 2008.DOI: 10.1038/jp.2008.67
A. M. Presanis, D. De Angelis, D. J. Spiegelhalter, S. Seaman, A. Goubar, and A. E. Ades. Conflicting evidence in a Bayesian synthesis of surveillance data to estimate human immunodefficiency virus prevalence. J. Royal Statistical Soc. Series A-statistics In Soc., 171:915-937, 2008. DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2008.00543.x
J Suckling, D Ohlssen, C Andrew, J Johnson, SC Williams, M Graves, CH Chen, D Spiegelhalter, and E Bullmore. Components of variance in a multicentre functional MRI study and implications for calculation of statistical power. Human Brain Mapping, 29:1111-1122, 2008. DOI: 10.1002/hbm.20451
HE Jones, DI Ohlssen, and DJ Spiegelhalter. Use of the false discovery rate when comparing multiple health care providers. J Clin Epidemiol, 61:232-240, 2008 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2007.04.017.
AL Kinmonth, NJ Wareham, W Hardeman, S Sutton, AT Prevost, T Fanshawe, KM Williams, U Ekelund, D Spiegelhalter, and SJ Griffin. Efficacy of a theory-based behavioural intervention to increase physical activity in an at-risk group in primary care (ProActive UK): a randomised trial. Lancet, 371:41-48, 2008.DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(08)60070-7
D. J. Spiegelhalter. Understanding uncertainty. Annals Family Medicine, 6(3):196-197, 2008.DOI: 10.1370/afm.848
D J Spiegelhalter and H Riesch. Risk, middle-class drinking, and bacon sandwiches. Significance, 5:30-33, 2008.DOI: 10.1111/j.1740-9713.2008.00277.x

2007

O J Arthurs, T Donovan, D J Spiegelhalter, J D Pickard, and S J Boniface. Intracortically distributed neurovascular coupling relationships within and between human somatosensory cortices. Cerebral Cortex, 17:661-668, 2007.DOI: 10.1093/cercor/bhk014
A Gorst-Rasmussen, D J Spiegelhalter, and C Bull. Monitoring the introduction of a surgical intervention with long-term consequences. Statistics in Medicine, 26:512-531, 2007.DOI: 10.1002/sim.2548
O Grigg and D J Spiegelhalter. A simple risk-adjusted exponentially weighted moving average. Journal of American Statistical Association, 102:140-152, 2007.DOI: 10.1198/016214506000001121
D Ohlssen, L D Sharples, and D J Spiegelhalter. Flexible random- effects models using Bayesian semi-parametric models: applications in institutional comparisons. Statistics in Medicine, 26:2088-2112, 2007.DOI: 10.1002/sim.2666
D Ohlssen, L D Sharples, and D J Spiegelhalter. A hierarchical modelling framework for identifying unusual performance in health care providers. J Roy Statist Soc A, 170:865-890, 2007.DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2007.00487.x
E C Marshall and D J Spiegelhalter. Simulation-based tests for divergent behaviour in hierarchical models. Bayesian Analysis, 2:409-444, 2007.DOI: 10.1214/07-BA218
C Weir, A Grieve, and D J Spiegelhalter. Likelihood-based posterior updating for optimal dose allocation in a normal dynamic linear model. Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics, 17:1033-1050, 2007.DOI: 10.1080/10543400701643947
T Ring and D J Spiegelhalter. Risk of intracranial aneurysm bleeding in autosomal-dominant polycystic kidney disease. Kidney International, 72:1400-2, 2007.DOI: 10.1038/sj.ki.5002488
AT Prevost, D Mason, S Griffin, AL Kinmonth, S Sutton, and D Spiegelhalter. Allowing for correlations between correlations in random-effects meta-analysis of correlation matrices. Psychological Methods, 12:434-450, 2007.DOI: 10.1037/1082-989X.12.4.434

Immodest stuff

See Google Scholar for the top citation-earners. According to Web of Science, in August 2009 my h-index was 49 (although this is a stupid measure of performance).
2009: I gave the 2009 Distinguished Lecture Series in Statistical Sciences at the Fields Institute in Toronto
2008: Spiegelhalter et al (2002) has the 3rd highest citations in the Mathematical Sciences in the last 10 years:
2008: Bernoulli Lecture at the 7th World Congress of Probability and Statistics (Institute of Mathematical Statistics) in Singapore
2006: Career Achievement Award, Society for Medical Decision Making
2006: OBE (Officer of the Order of the British Empire)
2006: Honorary Professor of Biostatistics, University of Cambridge
2005: Elected Fellow of the Royal Society

External work

I have acted as a paid statistical consultant to a variety of organisations, including the Healthcare Commission, World Anti-Doping Agency, Novartis, and GlaxoSmithKline.

Really Personal Page

This includes my stained glass work.

Last updated 10-Nov-09
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