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Communicating Complex Statistical Evidence

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A Conference sponsored by the Cambridge Statistics Initiative and the Winton Programme for the Public Understanding of Risk, based within the Statistical Laboratory of the Department of Pure Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics, University of Cambridge.

8th and 9th January 2009
Meeting Room 2, Centre for Mathematical Sciences,
Wilberforce Road, Cambridge, CB3 0WB
http://www.statslab.cam.ac.uk/Dept/travel.html

THEME

Complex statistical models and reasoning can play a major role in informing both policy and individual decisions, but it is not necessarily straightforward to communicate what may be rather subtle statistical issues. This conference will bring together people interested in techniques to maximize the credibility and impact of statistical science in a range of important contexts, including health policy, climate change projections and impact, crime and the law, and epidemic control.

PROGRAMME

There will be a single strand with no parallel sessions. Contributed posters on a topic relevant to the overall meeting theme are invited.

DAY 1, JANUARY 8TH, 2009

10:30-11:30     REGISTRATION & COFFEE

11:30-12:15     Christl Donnelly, Imperial College London,
                        Using statistics and modelling to understand the "what if"s of infectious disease

12:15-13:00     Chris Gilligan, Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge 
                        Inference for decision making to control botanical epidemics

13:00-14:00     LUNCH

14:00-14:45     Stephen Fienberg, Carnegie-Mellon,
                        Assessing Information Based Counter-Terrorism Programs:A Statistical Perspective on the Privacy-Utility

14:45-15:30     Dr. Ian Evett, The Forensic Science Service
                        It's not rocket science: logical inference and the judiciary

15:30-16:00     TEA BREAK

16:00-16:45     Lawrence Sherman, Cambridge Institute of Criminology  
                        Is it Ethical for Statisticians to Testify About 'Practical Significance'?

16:45-17:15     Panel Discussion led by Philip Dawid

17:15-18:45     Poster Session & Reception

19:30-22:00     DINNER AT QUEENS' COLLEGE OLD HALL

DAY 2: JANUARY 9TH, 2009

09:00-09:45     Philip Dawid, Statistical Laboratory, Cambridge
                         Bayesian networks for the analysis of evidence

09:45-10:30     David Spiegelhalter, Statistical Laboratory and MRC Biostatistics  Unit, 
                        Communicating analyses of the performance of  healthcare organisations

10:30-11:00     COFFEE BREAK

11:00-11:45     Keith Richards, Geography, University of Cambridge                
                        Anatomy of a flood event: some thoughts on flood frequency  analysis and its representation

11:45-12:30     Andrew Coburn, Risk Management Solutions, Catastrophe Risk
                        Modelling - Decisions and Uncertainty

12:30-13:30     LUNCH

13:30-14:15     Chris Hope,Judge Business School,Cambridge,
                        Probabilistic modelling for climate change policy

14:15-15:00     David MacKay,Physics, University of Cambridge,                        
                        Communicating the Truth About Energy

15:00-15:30     PANEL DISCUSSION & CONCLUSION

15:30-16:00     FAREWELL TEA

ACCOMMODATION

Participants are responsible for arranging their own accommodation. You may wish to visit the following website to choose from the varied accommodations in Cambridge.

http://www.visitcambridge.org/wheretostay.php

For College accommodations (normally only available during university vacation times), you may visit: www.cambridgerooms.co.uk

To find out how to get from your accommodation by local bus transit to the CMS (CB3 0WB) a journey planner may be found at: http://www.cambridgeshire.gov.uk/transport/around/journey.htm

COST

Regular:
Attendance, lunches and conference dinner - 60 pounds
Day attendance (includes lunch) - 20 pounds per day
Dinner - 25 pounds

Students and concessions:
Attendance - free, but registration required
Dinner - 25 pounds

REGISTRATION

Formal registration is available at http://ccseconf.org/node/3 Only payments by cheque will be accepted, due by 15 December 2008. Institutions requiring an invoice should notify Arciris Garay Arevalo.

All cheques should be made payable to the 'University of Cambridge'. Please address envelope to:

Arciris Garay Arevalo, D0.12
Department of Pure Mathematics & Mathematical Statistics
University of Cambridge
Centre for Mathematical Sciences
Wilberforce Road
Cambridge, UK
CB3 0WB

CONFERENCE CHAIRS

Philip Dawid and David Spiegelhalter

CONFERENCE SECRETARY

Arciris Garay-Arevalo